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| Division Playoffs: Lancaster's Locks |
| Jimmy Lancaster |
| January 11, 2008 |
Lancaster Divisional
This week I am taking three locks, which include one three-team money-line teaser.
All of the money is coming in on the under for the Giants/Cowboys; it opened at 48 and is down to 46.5. Dallas won the first meeting this year 45-35, and the second 31-20. Sure the Giants are playing much better and Dallas faded the last two weeks; plus there�s all that gobbledygook about it being difficult to beat a team three times in one year. But I watched every play of both of those games this year, and Dallas is by far the better team. The Giants, although I was on them last week, cannot stop Dallas� offense. Dallas has more playmakers, even when it comes to the defensive line, which is usually an advantage for New York. I like Brandon Jacobs in this game, because he did have 95 yards in the second game after missing most of the first. But the score was no closer. I love Dallas and the Money Line at a relative bargain at -300. They didn�t work all year to get the home field advantage to get upset before getting another shot at the NFC title.
Transition into Lambeau. This may come as a shocker, but I like the Seahawks to pull a huge upset this week and bring on the rematch from the fumbled snap of Romo 2007. Seattle has not been overworking Alexander for a reason, because they are going to ride him to the NFC championship game. Seattle has also give up 15 passing TDs all season, best in the league; and who better to know Favre than Coach Mike. I also say that Woodson�s toe becomes an issue for Green Bay. Do you think a first-year head coach is going to beat the man who, after Walsh, was the Don of that family tree? Forget all the Favre beating New England than retire-hype; I say next week�s story-line is based in Dallas. Seattle and the Money Line +300.
Let�s move to what I view as the more complicated AFC. I am going to risk 8 to 1 on the Pats,� because I think they are the better team. They should give Garrard more than he can handle, and force some fumbles as well as win the special teams battle. Jacksonville is 20th against the pass, more than 23 yards worse than the home team. Again, historically with this league, the team with home field rarely loses it right off the bat. New England, if they have any vulnerability, has trouble stopping the run up the gut, and certainly Jacksonville has the personnel to hurt them here. But in order for that game plan to work out, they�ll need to score early and often off of it or by other means; essentially everything needs to go right. I�ll take the Pats at -800.
Finally, we go to Indianapolis, who lost to San Diego in a game they should have won. Peyton is not going to throw 6 INTs, and it�s hard to see Phillip Rivers winning against Peyton Manning, even if it�s on the 13th and if San Diego won the last time they were in Indy, ending Indy�s 13 game winning streak and busting up their perfect season. Drew Brees was on the hill then, too. One might say that San Diego has Indy�s #, but Mike Vanderjagt was the Colts� kicker then, and yes, he was #13. So it�s Indy and the Money Line here, and I actually like the under too, taking it at 49. I love a rested Addai to get a huge dose of work here, with all his LSU good vibes. Also, with Lorenzo Neal probably in the mix and Gates probably out, the Chargers will lean on their running game even more with Manumaleuna.
But for the sake of saving a potential nightmare, I�m taking the three favorite money lines in a parlay: Dallas, New England and Indy at basically even odds. Then, I�ll take Seattle to win at 3 to 1, and the under in the Colts/Chargers (49).
Last Week: 2-3-0
Season: 33-41-1
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